Bitcoin Forecast Monitor
In September 2017, VME decided to begin tracking some of the 2020 forecasts being made by industry pundits. We decided to make our own forecast as well, which we have used for our internal decision making ever since.
How does it work? VME went back and grabbed all daily Bitcoin market price averages from 2011 – 9/11/2017 and factored daily average market price increases and corrected for spikes and crashes. We turned this into a formula for steady baseline growth and crafted our own forecasting engine. We then applied the same math to 2020 predictions made by notable Bitcoin enthusiasts.
Every Monday, VME updates the actual daily market value of Bitcoin in order to gauge reality against forecasts.
It’s important to note that our forecast model does correct for spikes and crashes and averages out the impact of those events over time. As a result, forecast representations on the chart will seem very smooth and curve toward their final 2020 prediction. There is no correction for actual market prices, and those lines will appear as jagged as the market environment.
This chart begins on 9/11/2017, because that is the date we began this experiment.
*VME is not a financial or investment advisor, and the information presented here is not intended to assist or guide you with your investments. Do your own research to make the best financial decisions for your situation. The data presented here is nothing more than a set of predictions and built on internal mathematical models. Any attempts to predict the short or long-term outcome of any investment are based solely upon the opinions of the publisher.
2020 Bitcoin Market Price Predictions VS. Reality
JM-500 & JM-1000
John Mcafee famously predicted during an interview that his modeling suggested that Bitcoin would hit $500k by the close of 2020 or there would be consequences. This forecast is represented by the JM-500 line. In December of 2017, he revised his forecast by stating an error was made and increased his 2020 forecast to $1m (JM-1000).
Ronnie Moas, of Standpoint Research, has publicly announced that he believes Bitcoin will rise to $50,000 by 2020. His forecast is represented by the RM-50 line.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat has forecasted for a market price of $91,000 by 2020. He actually stated March 2020, but we’re going to extend that assessment to the close of the 2020 year for monitoring purposes. Tom Lee’s forecast is represented by the TL-91 line.
When VME sat down to work on our own forecasting model for clients, we found that our numbers came pretty close to John Mcafee’s. The VME model is represented by the VME-2020 line.